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Vegas completely botched these NFL win total projections

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After a nearly eight month break, the NFL is finally back in action. That means the action will be ramping up at sportsbooks all over the country.

One of the more popular, and widely discussed, options in the NFL betting market is win total projections. Casual and professional gamblers alike are typically attracted to these offerings, and they offer media-types the opportunity to discuss how the Vegas oddsmakers view their team.

Today I will give you three season win totals that the Vegas oddsmakers completely botched. Here’s what I came up with.




Tennessee Titans – o/u 8 wins

The time has come for Marcus Mariota to put up, or shut up — figuratively speaking of course (Mariota is one of the nicest guys in the National Football League). And given the news that Ryan Tannehill was pushing Mariota throughout training camp, I’m going to go out on a limb and say the 2014 Heisman Trophy winner isn’t going to challenge for All-Pro honors in 2019.

I do like pieces of the Titans roster (their offensive line, Derrick Henry, Delanie Walker, and their secondary). I just don’t see this team getting through their schedule, which is very difficult, with more than seven wins. I see them going 6-10, and likely making a quarterback change next offseason.

Bet the under.

Indianapolis Colts – o/u 7.5 wins

The Colts are saying all the right things about Andrew Luck’s successor, Jacoby Brissett — and they even backed it up with a fat new $30 million contract extension. And there is a lot to like about the construction of their roster. 

Still, the Colts, as they are assembled today, simply aren’t a playoff caliber team without Luck under center.

Their rushing attack won’t be as effective without a game-changing threat at quarterback, and their defense won’t have the luxury of playing with a lead, as they often did when Luck was running the show.

All said, I see the Colts as a six or seven-win team.

Bet the under.

Chicago Bears – o/u 9.5 wins

The hype train has been going full speed in Chicago since the final seconds ticked off the clock in Super Bowl 53.

To be completely fair to the sometimes delusional Bears fanbase, there is a ton to like about this team. The defense is elite (possibly the best in the entire league), and they have one of the deepest rosters from top to bottom in the NFL.

For me, it comes down to Mitchell Trubisky. The former North Carolina Tar Heel has all the physical tools you could ever ask for in a NFL quarterback, but in two years I have yet to be convinced that he possesses the “it” factor.

Because of their defense (led by two Defensive Player of the Year candidates in Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith), the Bears are playoff-caliber — and I think they will make the postseason as a Wild Card team for what it’s worth.

Bottom line: it’s hard to look at the Bears’ schedule and come up with 10 wins.

Bet the under.




This article originated on WoodyPaige.com.

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